Will the Steam Coal Price Rebound under the New Economy Normalcy in China?

The steam coal price in China has been continuously decreasing since the second half of 2012. Constant low price of coal will accelerate the development of thermal power, cause more serious air pollution problems, and bring adverse influence to China’s energy reformation in the future. Therefore, analyzing the factors underlying the phenomenon of the decreasing steam coal price is significant. In this study, we first qualitatively analyze five main factors, namely, economy, supply, demand, substitutes, and port stocks. On the basis of the relationships among these five factors, we obtain the causality diagram and the system flow diagram of coal price for further quantitative research. Then, we conduct an empirical analysis using the system dynamics (SD) method and determine the simulated price from 2012 to 2017. Finally, we discuss the running results and come to the conclusion that the steam coal price will continue to decrease under the combined actions of the five main factors and it will not rebound in the near future.